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UEFA Champions League 2006/07 club ratings

News Type: Other — Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:58 AM EDT

1 star is for teams with a rating below 25. Two stars: 25-41, three: 42-58, four: 59-74, five: 75-91 and six stars means the rating is above 91.

We certainly have no reason to doubt what fans of Red Star Belgrade thinks of AC Milan being allowed to play in this season's Champions League. These photos from the 3rd round qualification game in Belgrade show a giant tifo reading "UEFA" and "MAFIOSI". I'd love to have Silvio Berlusconi's autograph on a print of this. Photos by Red Star Belgrade fans.

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I have conjured up some ratings to compare the clubs of this Champions League group stage. Ratings are indexes (100-0).

The "SD-value" describes how evenly matched the clubs of each group are: the higher the value, the more unevenly matched teams. Groups are listed in order of combined strengths of clubs in them.

Group A

  1. Barcelona 100
  2. Chelsea 75
  3. Bremen 31
  4. Levski 22

SD = 32.
By far the strongest group. Barcelona and Chelsea are almost certain to finish 1st and 2nd. Of course, one of them could end up beating the other twice, handing Werder Bremen a chance of getting the 2nd place.

Group E

  1. Real Madrid 72
  2. Lyon 57
  3. Steaua 26
  4. Dynamo Kyiv 24

SD = 20.
My guess is Lyon is going to win the group.

Group B

  1. Internazionale 69
  2. Bayern 47
  3. Sporting 30
  4. Spartak Moskva 19

SD = 19.
Looks like Inter advancing as group winners with Sporting Lissabon giving Bayern München a serious contest for the 2nd place.

Group H

  1. Milan 81
  2. Lille 32
  3. Anderlecht 24
  4. AEK 23

SD = 24.
I think it's fair to say AC Milan was handed a quite fortunate draw here! Which is peculiar as their very presence in the tournament was subject to a somewhat controversial ruling by UEFA's Emergency Panel.

Group G

  1. Arsenal 68
  2. Porto 44
  3. CSKA Moskva 25
  4. Hamburg 23

SD = 18.
Sure, Arsenal are favourites. But each of the other teams could soon have higher ratings than they do right now. If the English side takes things for granted they risk playing UEFA Cup through the 3rd place.

Group C

  1. Liverpool 64
  2. PSV Eindhoven 42
  3. Bordeaux 26
  4. Galatasaray 24

SD = 16.
Should be a relatively easy advance for Liverpool. Which of the three other teams will finish 2nd is harder to say.

Group D

  1. Valencia 50
  2. Roma 44
  3. Olympiacos 28
  4. Shakhtar 24

SD = 11.
The most evenly matched group. And consequently also the hardest to predict. But at the end of the day, we should see Valencia finish 1st and Roma 2nd.

Group F

  1. Man. United 61
  2. Benfica 35
  3. Celtic 32
  4. København 17

SD = 16.
The weakest group. Looks like Manchester United have been given a walk over group. I'm not too sure about that though. They are not as strong as they used to be and you can never really rule out clubs like Benfica and Celtic. Should FC København of Copenhagen, Denmark finish 3rd we're going to celebrate.

Matches are played 12th & 13th of September, 26th & 27th of September, 17th & 18th of October, 31st of October & 1st of November, 21st & 22nd of November and 5th & 6th of December 2006.

Method: Ratings calculated as averages of indexed UEFA coefficients, inverse winner odds (double weight) and four unofficial ratings. "SD" for each group is the standard deviance; the higher the SD the bigger the differences between group club ratings.

I originally intended to leave this as a pure statistics at my soccer blog - but Blogger is messing with my logon so I added a few comments and dropped it here at Newsvine instead.

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{"commentId":267628,"authorDomain":"ultimategfx"}
Mike B

Whilst I think the article is great, I'll have to disagree with you on one point. Group D is probably the easiest group.

{"commentId":267628,"threadId":"39200","contentId":"339918","authorDomain":"ultimategfx"}
  • 2 votes
Reply#1 - Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:52 AM EDT
{"commentId":267846,"authorDomain":"morf"}
MORF

How is AC Milan rated better than Inter?

{"commentId":267846,"threadId":"39200","contentId":"339918","authorDomain":"morf"}
    Reply#2 - Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:58 AM EDT
    {"commentId":268066,"authorDomain":"sirfab"}
    sirfab

    AC Milan is better than Inter. That's how.

    {"commentId":268066,"threadId":"39200","contentId":"339918","authorDomain":"sirfab"}
    • 1 vote
    Reply#3 - Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:13 PM EDT
    {"commentId":268942,"authorDomain":"wibs"}
    wibs

    inter has one of the best attacking sides in the world, but lack the total package. AC Milan simply doesn't have a weak spot.

    {"commentId":268942,"threadId":"39200","contentId":"339918","authorDomain":"wibs"}
      Reply#4 - Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:34 AM EDT
      {"commentId":269185,"authorDomain":"morf"}
      MORF

      Comparing only defense:

      AC Milan: Paolo Maldini (38), Cafu (36), Costacurta (40), Nesta, Simic,

      Inter: Cordoba (30), Burdisso (25), Materazzi (33), Zanetti (33), Fabio Grosso (28), Mihalovic (37), Walter Samuel (28).

      There are others on both teams but these are the main guys. Age alone tells me Inter is in better shape but so does the quality of the players.

      In the Midfield AC probably has a slight advantage due to Kaka but it is close and Inter's depth over the course of a long season will help them.

      AC Milan: Kaka, Gattuso, Seedorf, Jankulovski, Pirlo, Ambrosini

      Inter: Stankovic, Zanetti, Figo, Viera, Cambiasso, Solari, Gonzales, Dacourt

      The addition this year of Viera to this team makes their midfield on par with the best in the world. Don't sleep on Stankovic and Cambiasso they are great. There are also others on both teams

      Up front this isn't really arguable with the departure of Shevchenko for just money.

      AC Milan: Amoroso, Boriello, Gilardino, Inzaghi and that's it only four strikers

      Inter: Ibrahimovic, Adriano, Crespo, Recoba, Cruz, and three others who aren't even necessary for this discussion

      It's fairly obvious that Inter's forwards are better. Just the fact that they added Zlatan while AC lost Andriy shows that they are better.

      Lastly Goalies: Dida for AC against Toldo and Dida's back up Julio Cesar. Pretty even especially looking at Dida last year when he was pretty weak.

      AC has a better midfield but is worse or even everywhere else and gets killed up front. At the end of the year Inter will prove to be the better team. I was curious how the rankings came to those numbers?

      {"commentId":269185,"threadId":"39200","contentId":"339918","authorDomain":"morf"}
      • 1 vote
      #4.1 - Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:33 AM EDT
      {"commentId":269308,"authorDomain":"benno"}
      Benno Hansen
      I was curious how the rankings came to those numbers?

      This is a typical debate over a set of ratings. Most ratings reflect past merits; in the case of the UEFA rankings they are basically a measure of the club's results in the European matches for the last five years. The other ratings are similar. But how else produce a completely unbiassed rating? Even the transfer values of the players are completely unreliable.

      Both the UEFA coefficient and all four unofficial ratings I used rank Milan above Inter. Even the bookmakers leave Milan more chances of winning the tournament - which of course might have to do with Milan getting an easier group.

      I agree with you that Inter have made some impressive signings. They could close in on Milan significantly this season.

      {"commentId":269308,"threadId":"39200","contentId":"339918","authorDomain":"benno"}
        #4.2 - Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:45 AM EDT
        Reply
        {"commentId":540043,"authorDomain":"benno"}
        Benno Hansen

        I have posted some updated ratings.

        {"commentId":540043,"threadId":"39200","contentId":"339918","authorDomain":"benno"}
          Reply#5 - Sun Feb 18, 2007 4:40 PM EST
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