Visit Benno Hansen's column >>

BENNO HANSENHome Page

Alive in Copenhagen, Denmark
Add To Watchlist
Articles Posted: 119; Links Seeded: 1484
Member Since: 2/2006

UEFA EURO 2008: Team ratings and group stage match probabilities

News Type: Other — Sat Jun 7, 2008 9:37 AM EDT

advertisement

EURO 2008 kicks off in only a couple of hours. Here is a quick and dirty overview of the relative strenghts of the teams and assessments to each group stage match.

Team ratings

Indexed rating conjured from many copy/pasted numbers in spreadsheet; much like I did before the UEFA Champions League 2006/07.

  1. Germany 100
  2. Spain 97
  3. Italy 93
  4. France 83
  5. Portugal 87
  6. Czech Republic 79
  7. Croatia 78
  8. Netherlands 76
  9. Greece 67
  10. Russia 60
  11. Sweden 59
  12. Switzerland 57
  13. Romania 55
  14. Turkey 54
  15. Poland 53
  16. Austria 31

From these simple ratings you can also hint at group C being the strongest (total ratings 228) and group B being the least equal (standard deviation 19). Meaning we might see top teams like Italy or France leave the tournament early, while Germany should cruise to the knock out matches.

Match probabilities

These are very crude assessments. Numbers are percentages (first team win, draw, second team win)

  • Switzerland - Czech - Republic 30 30 40
  • Portugal - Turkey 60 26 14
  • Austria - Croatia 19 28 53
  • Germany - Poland 68 23 9
  • Romania - France 18 27 55
  • Netherlands - Italy 31 30 39
  • Spain - Russia 60 25 15
  • Greece - Sweden 33 30 37
  • Czech - Republic - Portugal 30 28 43
  • Switzerland - Turkey 43 28 30
  • Croatia - Germany 25 27 47
  • Austria - Poland 31 28 41
  • Italy - Romania 58 26 16
  • Netherlands - France 33 29 38
  • Sweden - Spain 19 27 54
  • Greece - Russia 36 29 35
  • Switzerland - Portugal 27 27 45
  • Turkey - Czech - Republic 28 27 45
  • Austria - Germany 9 22 69
  • Poland - Croatia 27 27 45
  • France - Italy 34 29 36
  • Netherlands - Romania 51 27 22
  • Greece - Spain 20 27 54
  • Russia - Sweden 36 28 36

Meaning Germany will most likely finish with 7 or 9 points while Portugal and Spain are extremely unlikely to collect less than 5 points. Don't miss these matches: Monday 9 June Netherlands vs Italy, Wednesday 11 June Czech Republic vs Portugal, Thursday 12 June Croatia vs Germany and Tuesday 17 June 2008 France vs Italy.

(Since most of this has been made by copy/pasting from the net to a spreadsheet of questionable formulas to Newsvine it may be full of bugs, errors and weirdnesses. Please take it easy. Personally I use numbers like these when betting.)

  • 7 Votes
  • Enjoy this article? Help vote it up the 'Vine.

Back To Top

Published to:

What's this?
Who's leading the conversation?
This visualization below allows you to see the impact that each user has on the current conversation. The top row contains the group of users who have had the most impact, the 2nd row the group of users who have had the 2nd most impact (et cetera). Users with similar impact are grouped together, and the average score of the group is shown to the left of the group. The author of the article is also shown on the left, in their corresponding group. Each user's score is based on the number of comments the user has made plus the number of votes their comments have received. The scores are calculated relative one another, so while their absolute value is not particularly important, their relative difference does indicate a larger difference in impact on the conversation.
3.8
1.1
{"commentId":1925527,"authorDomain":"kisteev"}
Nisten

Ha-ha. Greece is the Champion but not even in TOP5

Funny flash gamr :)
www.road-to-euro .com/game/

{"commentId":1925527,"threadId":"283687","contentId":"1550860","authorDomain":"kisteev"}
    Reply#1 - Mon Jun 9, 2008 12:35 PM EDT
    {"commentId":1932645,"authorDomain":"benno"}
    Benno Hansen

    The ratings aren't some numbers I just came up with they are subjectively weighted averages of other ratings - most notably bookmakers' odds and FIFA's ratings.

    {"commentId":1932645,"threadId":"283687","contentId":"1550860","authorDomain":"benno"}
      #1.1 - Tue Jun 10, 2008 12:58 PM EDT
      {"commentId":1952242,"authorDomain":"scientificblog"}
      Cash

      Greece was 80-1 in 2004 for a reason. Lightning rarely strikes at the same place in southern Europe twice.

      {"commentId":1952242,"threadId":"283687","contentId":"1550860","authorDomain":"scientificblog"}
        #1.2 - Thu Jun 12, 2008 11:05 PM EDT
        {"commentId":1955755,"authorDomain":"benno"}
        Benno Hansen

        Which reminds me I put some money on Greece beating Portugal in the group phase at 9-1 :-)

        What do you got your cash on, Cash? (he he I'm funny)

        {"commentId":1955755,"threadId":"283687","contentId":"1550860","authorDomain":"benno"}
        • 1 vote
        #1.3 - Fri Jun 13, 2008 11:37 AM EDT
        {"commentId":1956156,"authorDomain":"scientificblog"}
        Cash

        Croatia!! I like the flag and the women go nuts when their country wins at Team Water Polo. Imagine what they will do if they win in a real sport??

        {"commentId":1956156,"threadId":"283687","contentId":"1550860","authorDomain":"scientificblog"}
        • 1 vote
        #1.4 - Fri Jun 13, 2008 12:23 PM EDT
        Reply
        {"commentId":1945721,"authorDomain":"200MilesUp"}
        Oluseye

        Great article Benno. How did I miss this.

        {"commentId":1945721,"threadId":"283687","contentId":"1550860","authorDomain":"200MilesUp"}
        • 1 vote
        Reply#2 - Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:43 AM EDT
        {"commentId":1955744,"authorDomain":"benno"}
        Benno Hansen

        Thanks. Really just a bit of copy pasting from my betting notes ;-)

        {"commentId":1955744,"threadId":"283687","contentId":"1550860","authorDomain":"benno"}
          #2.1 - Fri Jun 13, 2008 11:36 AM EDT
          Reply
          {"commentId":1966596,"authorDomain":"benno"}
          Benno Hansen

          Biggest surprise on 1st matchdays was Netherlands vs Italy 3-0.

          Unless Sweden beats Spain tonight the biggest surprise on 2nd matchdays was Croatia vs Germany 2-1.

          That or my ratings are wrong ;-)

          {"commentId":1966596,"threadId":"283687","contentId":"1550860","authorDomain":"benno"}
          • 1 vote
          Reply#3 - Sat Jun 14, 2008 10:44 AM EDT
          {"commentId":1967627,"authorDomain":"scientificblog"}
          Cash

          I agree. Nothing made me happier than shutting up every damn Italian walking around chanting "Italia campioni del mondo"

          {"commentId":1967627,"threadId":"283687","contentId":"1550860","authorDomain":"scientificblog"}
          • 1 vote
          #3.1 - Sat Jun 14, 2008 2:28 PM EDT
          Reply
          {"commentId":1968741,"authorDomain":"benno"}
          Benno Hansen

          Quick and dirty quarter finals forecast

          • Thursday 19 June 2008: Winner Grp A (Portugal) vs Runner-up Grp B (Germany)
          • Friday 20 June 2008: Winner Grp B (Croatia) vs Runner-up Grp A (Czech Rep. 3-5 or Turkey 2-5)
          • Saturday 21 June 2008: Winner Grp C (Netherlands) vs Runner-up Grp D (Sweden or Russia - fifty/fifty)
          • Sunday 22 June 2008: Winner Grp D (Spain) vs Runner-up Grp C (Romania 1-2, Italy 1-4 or France 1-4)

          Agreed?

          {"commentId":1968741,"threadId":"283687","contentId":"1550860","authorDomain":"benno"}
            Reply#4 - Sat Jun 14, 2008 6:14 PM EDT
            {"commentId":2043400,"authorDomain":"benno"}
            Benno Hansen

            Haven't got the time to write up an article, but I published an assessment of each team's chances in the semis and final with Google Docs.

            {"commentId":2043400,"threadId":"283687","contentId":"1550860","authorDomain":"benno"}
              Reply#5 - Wed Jun 25, 2008 1:56 AM EDT
              {"canLink":false,"threadId":"283687","isPrivate":false}
              Leave a Comment:
              You're in Easy Mode. If you prefer, you can use XHTML Mode instead.
              Newsvine Privacy Statement
              As a new user, you may notice a few temporary content restrictions. Click here for more info.
              {"threadId":"283687","contentId":"1550860"}
              Start TrackingStart Tracking
              Stop TrackingStop Tracking
              Back To Top | Front Page